Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2009 > January > Consumers regard the time very favourable for buying durable goods

Published: 27 January 2009

Consumers regard the time very favourable for buying durable goods

Consumers' confidence in the economy remained weak in January. The consumer confidence indicator stood at -3.9 in January, having been -6.5 in December and -4.5 in November 2008. Before the past autumn, confidence in the economy was last negative during the recession years of the early 1990s. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,441 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 January.

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, only expectations on households' saving possibilities weakened slightly in January from the previous month. Saving possibilities were, however, still assessed as good, and some optimism was expressed in respect of consumers' own economic situation. By contrast, views of Finland's economy and unemployment continued to be gloomy. Fear of personal unemployment continued to increase in January. Consumers' estimates of the favourability of the time for raising a loan and in particular for making major purchases improved significantly in January.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in January 2009, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	January 2008	December 2008	January 2009	Situation**
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	13.3	21.8	-6.5	13.1	-6.5	-3.9	- -
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.3	14.1	2.3	9.7	3.2	3.5	- -
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months	35.7	52.0	10.9	48.4	49.0	44.7	+
Finland's economic situation in 12 months time	4.1	21.7	-27.1	-8.2	-27.1	-17.0	- -
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months time	4.1	27.6	-51.1	2.6	-51.1	-46.7	- -
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.2	4.6	0.7	3.8	2.1	2.0
Own threat of unemployment at present	3.6	7.6	-11.9	7.6	-10.7	-11.9	- -
Financial situation of household at present	26.5	35.1	14.7	34.3	31.3	30.5	+
Favourable time to make major purchases at present	19.8	37.7	-14.2	32.6	-7.7	31.0	++
Favourable time to save at present	10.9	36.8	-19.6	32.6	25.6	15.3	+
Favourable time to raise a loan at present	18.2	42.0	-47.1	-3.0	-27.8	-1.0	- -
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy. ** ++ Situation is very good, + Situation is good, - Situation is bad, - - Situation is very bad. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

In January 22 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 48 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 16 and 57 per cent in December and 18 and 33 per cent one year ago. In all, 21 per cent of consumers believed in January that their own economy would improve and 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago the corresponding proportions were 29 and 13 per cent.

Only 7 per cent of consumers thought in January that unemployment would decrease over the year, while as many as 80 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 35 and 29 per cent. Just 8 per cent of employed persons believed in January that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 26 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 17 and 9 per cent. In January, 45 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 21 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

In January consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by 2.0 per cent over the next 12 months. One year ago the respective figure was 3.8 per cent, while at its highest in June 2008 it stood at 4.6 per cent. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

As many as 61 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in January. One month previously the corresponding percentage was 70. Sixty-four per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. In January, 48 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. In December the corresponding proportion was only 27 per cent. In January, 12 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

In January as many as 57 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. In December the corresponding proportion was still clearly lower at 35 per cent. Many households had plans to purchase, among other things, household appliances and hobby equipment and to undertake home improvements and travel during the next six months. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and 6 per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Last year in January the corresponding proportions were 19 and 7 per cent.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-1/2009

 

Consumers' micro and macro indicators 10/1995-1/2009*

* Micro indicator is the average of three balances: own economy and household's saving possibilities in 12 months' time, and household's financial situation at present.
Macro indicator is the average of two balances: Finland's economy and unemployment in 12 months' time.

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, December 2008

* Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Average 10/1995-. Data for Ireland missing.
Source: European Commission. DG ECFIN. Business and Consumer Survey Results. December 2008
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2009, January. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734 3598,kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö

Consumer Confidence 2009, January (pdf 218.1 kB)

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Last updated 27.1.2009