Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2009 > May > Consumers' expectations on Finland's economy were positive in May

Published: 27 May 2009

Consumers' expectations on Finland's economy were positive in May

Consumers' confidence in the economy grew clearly stronger in May. In May the consumer confidence indicator stood at 7.2, while in April it was 1.0 and in March -1.5. At its lowest in December 2008 the confidence indicator was -6.5. Confidence in the economy was negative from October 2008 to March 2009 and before that during the recession years of the early 1990s. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,459 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 4 and 18 May.

Consumers' confidence in all four components of the consumer confidence indicator improved from the previous month in May. After a long period of negative views, expectations on Finland's economy returned to clearly positive levels. Estimates concerning the development of unemployment improved as well but remained at a gloomy level. In addition, many employed experienced a personal threat of unemployment in May.

By contrast, households' saving possibilities were assessed to be good and consumers had more optimism regarding their own economic situation than in recent months. In May the time was considered even more favourable than before especially for purchasing durable goods and for raising a loan.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in May 2009, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	May 2008	April 2009	May 2009	Outlook**
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	13.0	21.8	-6.5	11.1	1.0	7.2	-
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.1	14.1	2.3	6.6	3.4	5.6	-
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months	36.0	52.0	10.9	47.9	45.3	46.8	+
Finland's economic situation in 12 months time	3.9	21.7	-27.1	-14.3	-2.7	9.5	+
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months time	3.0	27.6	-51.1	4.3	-42.0	-33.2	- -
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.1	4.6	0.7	4.2	1.4	1.5
Own threat of unemployment at present	2.3	7.6	-18.8	6.2	-15.1	-16.9	- -
Financial situation of household at present	26.6	35.1	14.7	32.9	31.6	32.9	+
Favourable time to make major purchases at present	20.0	37.7	-14.2	8.2	31.3	34.0	+
Favourable time to save at present	10.9	36.8	-19.6	31.1	6.8	12.0	+/-
Favourable time to raise a loan at present	18.0	42.0	-47.1	-5.8	9.0	14.4	+/-
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy. ** ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, - - Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

In May 44 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 22 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. In April the respective proportions were 35 and 34 per cent and twelve months ago 13 and 40 per cent. In all, 22 per cent of consumers believed in May that their own economy would improve and 13 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Only 13 per cent of consumers thought in May that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 67 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 35 and 26 per cent.

Just 8 per cent of employed persons believed in May that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 32 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 16 and 11 per cent. In May, 37 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 24 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in May that consumer prices would go up by 1.5 per cent over the next 12 months. The respective figure was at its highest in June 2008, at 4.6 per cent. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

A total of 59 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in May. Twelve months earlier the corresponding percentage was 75. Sixty-six per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 79 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In May as many as 60 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. At its lowest last October the proportion was only 13 per cent. In May 14 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

In May 58 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods, One year previously the respective share was 40 per cent and at its lowest last October it stood at 30 per cent. In May many households had plans to travel, renovate their dwelling and purchase hobby equipment during the next six months. Seventeen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and more households than before, that is 10 per cent, to buy a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year's May the corresponding proportions were 18 and 8 per cent.

The May interviews for the Consumer Survey also examined households' ownership of various technical equipment. The equipment data will become available later on the Survey's Internet pages. In addition, an article on this topic will be published in issue 4/2009 of Statistics Finland's periodical Tieto&trendit.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-5/2009

Consumers' micro and macro indicators 10/1995-5/2009*

* Micro indicator is the average of three balances: own economy and household's saving possibilities in 12 months' time, and household's financial situation at present.
Macro indicator is the average of two balance figures: Finland's economy and unemployment in 12 months' time.

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, April 2009*

* Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Average: 10/1995-. Data for Ireland missing.
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results, April 2009
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2009, May. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734 3598,kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö

Consumer Confidence 2009, May (pdf 205.0 kB)

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Last updated 27.5.2009