Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2009 > July > Consumer confidence unchanged - consumption regarded as worthwhile

Published: 27 July 2009

Consumer confidence unchanged - consumption regarded as worthwhile

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 8.4 in July, which was unchanged from June. In May the consumer confidence indicator was 7.2. Confidence in the economy was negative from October to March. In July consumers' confidence was slightly stronger than one year previously but it continued to be below the long-term average. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,436 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 July.

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning unemployment and especially of Finland's economic situation improved in July compared with the previous month. However, views on the development of unemployment remained gloomy.

Consumers also expressed some optimism regarding their own economic situation and households assessed their saving possibilities as good. In July the time was considered the most favourable ever for purchasing durable goods. Consumers also estimated the time favourable for raising a loan.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in July 2009, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	July 2008	June 2009	July 2009	Outlook**
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	12.9	21.8	-6.5	6.5	8.4	8.4	-
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.1	14.1	2.3	4.6	7.1	7.1	-
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months	36.1	52.0	10.9	45.8	47.4	43.4	+
Finland's economic situation in 12 months time	3.9	21.7	-27.1	-20.8	9.2	11.7	+
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months time	2.6	27.6	-51.1	-3.8	-30.1	-28.6	- -
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.1	4.6	0.7	4.5	1.5	1.6
Own threat of unemployment at present	1.8	7.6	-18.8	6.6	-16.5	-15.0	- -
Financial situation of household at present	26.7	35.1	14.7	32.9	32.3	32.4	+
Favourable time to make major purchases at present	20.3	41.8	-14.2	5.2	36.1	41.8	++
Favourable time to save at present	10.8	36.8	-19.6	30.3	9.9	8.9	+/-
Favourable time to raise a loan at present	18.0	42.0	-47.1	-28.1	16.8	19.8	+/-
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy. ** ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, - - Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

In July 46 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 21 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 12 and 49 per cent. In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve while 11 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Only 14 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 62 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 26 and 33 per cent.

Just 7 per cent of employed persons believed in July that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 30 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 16 and 10 per cent. In July, 44 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 19 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in July that consumer prices would go up by 1.6 per cent over the next 12 months. The corresponding figure was 4.5 per cent in July 2008. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

Saving was considered worthwhile by 56 per cent of consumers in July. Twelve months earlier the corresponding percentage was 75. Sixty-six per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. Households mostly save for a rainy day. The most usual investment targets after fixed-term and investment accounts are insurance policies, and mutual funds in which interest has died down slightly this year.

In July already 64 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. At its lowest last October the proportion was only 13 per cent. In July 11 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

In July notably many consumers, or 62 per cent, thought the time was favourable for making major purchases. One year previously the respective share was 39 per cent and at its lowest in last October it stood at 30 per cent. Consumption plans in July were mostly moderate, but many households did plan to purchase e.g. household electronics or to travel during the next six months. In the next twelve months, 19 per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and 7 per cent a dwelling. In July 2008 the corresponding proportions were 16 and 7 per cent.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-7/2009

Consumers' micro and macro indicators 10/1995-7/2009*

* Micro indicator is the average of three balances: own economy and household's saving possibilities in 12 months' time, and household's financial situation at present.
Macro indicator is the average of two balance figures: Finland's economy and unemployment in 12 months' time.

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, June 2009*

* Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Average: 10/1995-. Data for Ireland missing.
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results, June 2009
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2009, July. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734 3598,kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö

Consumer Confidence 2009, July (pdf 198.9 kB)

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Last updated 27.7.2009