Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2009 > November > Consumers cautiously confident about the economy in November

Published: 27 November 2009

Consumers cautiously confident about the economy in November

The strengthening of consumers' confidence in the economy that had continued since spring came to a halt in November. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 10.9 in November, having been 12.3 in October and 11.7 in September. However, consumer confidence was clearly stronger this November than one year earlier, and was only slightly below the long-term average. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,433 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 November.

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, only views concerning own saving possibilities improved in November from the previous month. Expectations concerning both own and Finland's economic situation became slightly more cautious. Nevertheless, consumers still believed strongly in positive economic development. By contrast, their views about both general and own unemployment remained gloomy. Consumers thought in November that the time was favourable for raising a loan and for buying durable goods.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in November 2009, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	November 2008	October 2009	November 2009	Outlook**
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	12.9	21.8	-6.5	-4.5	12.3	10.9	+/-
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.1	14.1	2.3	3.1	9.0	7.4	-
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months	36.3	52.0	10.9	44.8	43.0	47.8	+
Finland's economic situation in 12 months' time	4.3	21.7	-27.1	-22.9	21.4	18.2	+
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months' time	1.9	27.6	-51.1	-42.9	-24.1	-29.8	- -
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.1	4.6	0.7	2.7	2.1	2.0
Own threat of unemployment at present	0.9	7.6	-18.8	-6.9	-12.9	-11.4	- -
Financial situation of household at present	26.8	35.1	14.7	31.9	31.8	32.0	+
Favourable time to make major purchases at present	20.6	41.8	-14.2	-12.8	36.3	35.2	+
Favourable time to save at present	10.8	36.8	-19.6	27.8	7.3	8.4	+/-
Favourable time to raise a loan at present	18.1	42.0	-47.1	-39.3	23.0	26.6	+
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy. ** ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, - - Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

In November, 54 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 17 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. One year ago, the corresponding proportions were pessimistic 16 and 55 per cent. In all, 25 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and only 11 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Twelve months ago these proportions were 21 and 15 per cent.

Only 13 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 62 per cent of them believed it would increase. Just 8 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 26 per cent thought it had grown. In November, 40 per cent of employed persons thought the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and 27 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up by 2.0 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

A total of 56 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in November. Twelve months earlier the corresponding percentage was 71. Sixty-six per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 80 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 69 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. In last year's November the respective proportion was only 18 per cent. This November, 12 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

Fifty-eight per cent of consumers thought in November that the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Only 33 per cent of consumers thought this one year ago. Consumption intentions were mostly moderate in November, but many households had plans to spend money on, for instance, home repairs and furnishings, or domestic appliances and hobby equipment during the next six months. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and 8 per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year's November the corresponding proportions were 15 and 7 per cent.

The November interviews for the Consumer Survey also examined households' ownership of various technical equipment. The equipment data will become available later on the Survey's Internet pages.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-11/2009

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time 10/1995-11/2009

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, October 2009*

* Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Average: 10/1995-. Data for Ireland missing.
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results, October 2009
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2009, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo (09) 1734 3598, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ari Tyrkkö

Consumer Confidence 2009, November (pdf 413.1 kB)

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Last updated 27.11.2009