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Published: 28 December 2009

Consumer confidence gained strength in December

Consumer confidence in the economy has become stronger again after a slight downturn in November. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 14.4 in December whereas in November it was 10.9 and in October 12.3. In December, consumer confidence was also slightly stronger than confidence on average in the long term and stronger than it had been for two years. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,475 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 16 December.

Consumers' confidence in all four components of the consumer confidence indicator improved in December from the previous month. Expectations concerning one's saving possibilities and Finland's economy were very bright. In fact, people expressed confidence in their own economy in general, even if the threat of becoming unemployed was still estimated to be rather big. In addition, views about general unemployment also remained gloomy, even if pessimism regarding it diminished considerably. Consumers thought in December that the time was favourable for raising a loan and especially for buying durable goods.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in December 2009, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	December  2008	November 2009	December 2009	Outlook**
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	12.9	21.8	-6.5	-6.5	10.9	14.4	+/-
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.1	14.1	2.3	3.2	7.4	8.9	+/-
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months	36.4	52.0	10.9	49.0	47.8	50.7	+
Finland's economic situation in 12 months' time	4.3	21.7	-27.1	-27.1	18.2	19.8	++
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months' time	1.8	27.6	-51.1	-51.1	-29.8	-21.8	-
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.1	4.6	0.7	2.1	2.0	1.9
Own threat of unemployment at present	0.7	7.6	-18.8	-10.7	-11.4	-9.7	-
Financial situation of household at present	26.8	35.1	14.7	31.3	32.0	33.7	+
Favourable time for buying durable goods	20.7	41.8	-14.2	-7.7	35.2	39.8	++
Favourable time for saving	10.8	36.8	-19.6	25.6	8.4	10.4	+/-
Favourable time for raising a loan	18.2	42.0	-47.1	-27.8	26.6	28.5	+
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy. ** ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, - - Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

In December, 54 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve during the next 12 months, while 15 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. One year ago, the corresponding proportions were very pessimistic 16 and 57 per cent. In all, 26 per cent of consumers believed in December that their own economy would improve and only 11 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Twelve months ago the corresponding proportions were 21 and 16 per cent.

Seventeen per cent of consumers thought in December that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 54 per cent of them believed it would increase. In November the corresponding proportions were 13 and 62 per cent, and the bleakest figures expressed in December last year were six and 83 per cent. Just 10 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 24 per cent thought it had grown. In December, 41 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 25 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in December that consumer prices would go up by 1.9 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

In December, 57 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for saving. In December last year 70 per cent of consumers held the same view. Sixty-eight per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 80 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In December, 70 per cent of consumers estimated that the time was good for raising a loan. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was only 27 per cent. In December clearly more households than before, or 15 per cent of them, were planning on taking out a loan within one year.

In December, 60 per cent of consumers thought that the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Only 35 per cent of consumers held this view one year ago. Consumption intentions were mostly moderate in December, but many households had plans to spend money on, for instance, entertainment electronics, hobby equipment, and travel during the next six months. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year's December the corresponding proportions were 14 and 7 per cent.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-12/2009

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time 10/1995-12/2009

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, November 2009

* Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Average: 10/1995-. Data on Ireland is missing.
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results, November 2009
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2009, December. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Pellervo Marja-aho +358 9 1734 3349,kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ari Tyrkkö

Consumer Confidence 2009, December (pdf 363.6 kB)

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Last updated 28.12.2009