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Published: 27 September 2010

Consumer confidence all-time strongest

Consumer confidence in the economy rose in September stronger than ever before. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 23.0 in September, having been 21.9 in August and 19.1 in July. One year ago the consumer confidence indicator was 11.7. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,412 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 September.

Consumer confidence indicator

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning Finland’s economy and own saving possibilities improved in September from the previous month. Confidence in Finland's economy has last been this strong in 1994. In September consumer views on one’s own economy in general and on development of unemployment in Finland remained unchanged. In addition, consumers thought inflation would accelerate and considered the time favourable for taking out a loan. Consumers had now slightly more intentions to make purchases than in the preceding months.

In September as many as 56 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while just eight per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 55 and 16 per cent. In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in September that their own economy would improve and 12 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Altogether 39 per cent of consumers thought in September that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the year, while 21 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months previously, the corresponding proportions were gloomy 16 and 60 per cent.

Twenty per cent of employed persons believed in September that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 12 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months previously, the corresponding proportions were gloomy seven and 30 per cent. In September, 43 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 25 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in September that consumer prices would go up by 2.6 per cent over the next 12 months. One year ago the predicted inflation rate was 1.6 per cent, and its long-term average is at 2.1 per cent.

In September, 66 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. One year previously the corresponding proportion was 55 per cent. Sixty-seven per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 81 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In September, 71 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. In August the respective proportion was 64 per cent. In September, 14 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

In September, 53 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for making major purchases. More households than before were planning to spend money on, for instance, travelling, home decoration or purchasing of home electronics or hobby equipment during the next six months. Eighteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year’s September the corresponding proportions were 14 and eight per cent.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	09/2009	08/2010	09/2010	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	13,2	23,0	-6,5	11,7	21,9	23,0	++
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	9,1	14,1	2,3	6,6	8,9	9,0	+/-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	37,0	52,0	10,9	47,8	47,4	49,2	++
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	5,2	25,4	-27,1	19,5	22,8	25,4	++
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	1,4	27,6	-51,1	-27,0	8,5	8,4	+
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,1	4,6	0,6	1,6	2,4	2,6
C1 Favourability of time for buying durable goods (balance)	21,2	41,8	-14,2	33,8	29,0	30,4	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,0	36,8	-19,6	7,4	20,2	19,5	+
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	18,4	42,0	-47,1	23,1	17,9	26,8	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor,-- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries will be later released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2010, September. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo (09) 1734 3598, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ari Tyrkkö

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Reviews

• 1. Overview of the past (27.9.2010)
• 2. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.9.2010)

Tables

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views of the economy (27.9.2010)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 9. Intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durable goods, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.9.2010)
• Appendix figure 11. Intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.9.2010)

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Updated 27.9.2010