Published: 29 September 2014
Consumer confidence slightly negative in September
The consumer confidence indicator stood at -0.7 in September, having been 2.2 in August and 9.4 in July. One year ago the consumer confidence indicator received the value 6.3. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 12.0. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,374 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 18 September.
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)
Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations of one’s own and Finland’s economy and the development of unemployment weakened in September. Consumers' views concerning own saving possibilities remained unchanged. Apart from saving, consumers' views were clearly gloomier in September than on average in the long term.
In September, consumers considered raising a loan slightly more worthwhile than purchasing of durable goods or saving. Employed consumers also felt that their threat of unemployment grew slightly in September.
Consumers' own and Finland's economy
In September, only 17 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 42 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In August, the respective proportions were 23 and 38 per cent and in last year's September, 29 and 32 per cent.
In all, 23 per cent of consumers believed in September that their own economy would improve and 18 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. The corresponding proportions were 23 and 15 per cent one month earlier and 22 and 16 per cent one year ago.
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time
Unemployment and inflation
Altogether, nine per cent of consumers thought in September that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the year, while 66 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 10 and 62 per cent in August and 15 and 54 per cent one year ago.
Nine per cent of employed persons believed in September that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 25 per cent thought it had grown. Forty-five per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 21 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.
Consumers estimated in September that consumer prices would go up by 2.2 per cent over the next 12 months. One year earlier in September the predicted inflation rate was 2.9 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.3 per cent.
Buying of durable goods
In September, 38 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for making major purchases. Fewer households than usual, or 13 per cent of them, were fairly or very certain to buy a car and only six per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Eighteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.
Saving and taking out a loan
In September, 51 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. In all, 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 76 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.
In September, 52 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.
Consumers' views of the economy
| Average 10/1995- | Max. 10/1995- | Min. 10/1995- | 09/2013 | 08/2014 | 09/2014 | Outlook | |
| A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4 | 12,0 | 22,9 | -6,5 | 6,3 | 2,2 | -0,7 | -- |
| B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance) | 8,5 | 14,1 | 2,3 | 4,4 | 5,2 | 3,6 | -- |
| B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance) | 3,4 | 25,3 | -27,1 | -3,6 | -9,6 | -15,8 | -- |
| B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent) | 2,3 | 4,6 | 0,6 | 2,9 | 2,2 | 2,2 | |
| B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance) | -2,7 | 27,6 | -51,1 | -22,0 | -28,9 | -32,6 | -- |
| B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance) | -0,7 | 7,6 | -18,8 | -6,6 | -5,6 | -9,2 | -- |
| C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance) | 18,3 | 41,8 | -14,2 | -1,3 | 3,4 | 3,3 | -- |
| C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance) | 11,1 | 36,8 | -19,6 | 7,8 | -0,1 | 2,3 | - |
| C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance) | 16,8 | 42,0 | -47,1 | 4,4 | 9,7 | 6,1 | - |
| D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance) | 38,8 | 52,2 | 10,9 | 46,3 | 42,1 | 42,1 | + |
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.
Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.
The population and sample of the Survey
The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).
In September, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 41.5 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.
The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.
EU results
The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2014, September. Statistics Finland
Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tara Junes 029 551 3503, consumer.survey@stat.fi
Director in charge: Riitta Harala
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- 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (29.9.2014)
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Appendix tables
- Figures
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- Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 3. Own economy (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 5. Inflation (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (29.9.2014)
- Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (29.9.2014)
Updated 29.9.2014
Official Statistics of Finland (OSF):
Consumer Confidence [e-publication].
ISSN=2669-8889. September 2014. Helsinki: Statistics Finland [referred: 22.11.2024].
Access method: http://www.stat.fi/til/kbar/2014/09/kbar_2014_09_2014-09-29_tie_001_en.html