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Published: 27 January 2015

Light positive trend in consumer confidence continued in January

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 6.0 in January, having been 4.4 in December and 2.6 in November. In January 2014, the consumer confidence indicator stood at 9.9. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 11.8. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,272 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 January.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations on own and Finland’s economy and the development of unemployment improved slightly in January compared with December. Views on households' saving possibilities remained unchanged. Consumers' views concerning their own and Finland's economy remained cautious and the views about unemployment were still gloomy. By contrast, expectations concerning own saving possibilities were good.

For the first time in a long time, consumers regarded the time more favourable for buying durable goods than for saving or raising a loan in January. In January, the personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed consumers was roughly at the same level as in December and one year earlier.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In January, 27 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 29 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 26 and 32 per cent in December and 39 and 21 per cent one year ago.

In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in January that their own economy would improve and 13 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 13 per cent of consumers thought in January that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 57 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 11 and 60 per cent in December and 17 and 47 per cent one year ago.

In January, nine per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 24 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-one per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

In January, consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by 1.7 per cent over the next 12 months. In January 2014, the predicted inflation rate was 2.7 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In January, more consumers than on average, or 48 per cent, thought the time was favourable for purchasing durable goods. Consumption, especially on domestic tourism and home repairs was planned. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Eighteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

In January, 54 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. In all, 66 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 77 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. Households mostly save for a rainy day or for holiday making. After the popular fixed-term or investment accounts, the most common investment targets are investment funds.

In January, 59 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Nevertheless, only 11 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	01/2014	12/2014	01/2015	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,8	22,9	-6,5	9,9	4,4	6,0	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,4	14,1	2,3	7,3	5,5	6,7	-
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,2	25,3	-27,1	7,3	-4,6	-2,5	-
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	2,7	2,0	1,7
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3,1	27,6	-51,1	-16,8	-27,6	-24,0	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-0,9	7,6	-18,8	-9,9	-7,5	-8,9	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	12,9	12,1	19,2	=
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,0	36,8	-19,6	8,8	2,4	6,8	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,8	42,0	-47,1	15,2	11,8	14,3	=
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,9	52,2	10,9	41,9	44,5	44,0	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In January, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 45.9 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2015, January. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tara Junes 029 551 3503, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.1.2015)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.1.2015)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.1.2015)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (27.1.2015)

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Updated 27.1.2015