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Published: 27 November 2015

Consumer confidence recovered slightly in November

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 4.7 in November, having been 1.3 in October and 4.2 in September. In last year’s November the CCI received the value 2.6. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.7. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,285 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 18 November.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the CCI, only expectations concerning general development of unemployment weakened in November from October. Consumers' expectations of their own and Finland's economy, and their household's saving possibilities improved somewhat. However, only the expectations concerning saving possibilities were bright in November, other expectations were subdued or gloomy.

In November, consumers regarded the time fairly favourable for taking out a loan but not for buying durable goods nor for saving. In November, employed consumers felt personally more threatened by unemployment than usual, as was the case also in October and one year ago.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In November, 30 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 29 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In October, the respective proportions were still 27 and 37 per cent and twelve months ago in November 25 and 36 per cent.

In all, 23 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and 13 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. In October, the respective proportions were 22 and 18 per cent and twelve months ago 23 and 16 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Only 11 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 63 per cent of them believed it would increase. In October, the respective proportions were 12 and 60 per cent.

Eleven per cent of employed persons reckoned in November that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 21 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-two per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up by 1.3 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term average predicted inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In November, 44 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

A total of 56 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile this November. In all, 65 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 62 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Fewer households than normal, or 11 per cent of them, were planning in November to raise a loan within one year.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In November, Greater Helsinki and Northern Finland had a brighter view of the economy than the rest of the country. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	11/2014	10/2015	11/2015	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,7	22,9	-6,5	2,6	1,3	4,7	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,3	14,1	2,3	4,7	2,5	5,7	-
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,1	25,3	-27,1	-8,1	-8,7	-1,9	-
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	1,9	1,2	1,3
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3,8	27,6	-51,1	-29,5	-27,7	-30,5	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,3	7,6	-18,8	-10,9	-5,7	-5,9	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,1	41,8	-14,2	5,8	15,6	15,0	-
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,7	36,8	-19,6	4,2	2,5	8,0	=
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,9	42,0	-47,1	9,3	14,4	19,6	=
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,1	52,2	10,9	43,4	39,1	45,4	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2015, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.11.2015)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.11.2015)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.11.2015)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (27.11.2015)

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Updated 27.11.2015