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Published: 27 April 2016

Consumer confidence more or less unchanged in April

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 9.8 in April, having been 10.4 in March and 7.7 in February. Last year in April, the CCI received the value 11.4. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.6. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,255 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 April.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy improved slightly in April from March. In contrast, views concerning general unemployment development and own saving possibilities weakened. In April, consumers' views on unemployment were fairly gloomy and on the other three components of the CCI on the long term average level.

In April, consumers regarded the time favourable for taking out a loan and a little also for buying durable goods but not for saving. Employed consumers also felt that the threat of unemployment decreased in April compared with the previous month.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In April, 35 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 24 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 36 and 26 per cent in March and 33 and 21 per cent one year ago in April.

In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in April that their own economy would improve, while 15 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. In March, the respective proportions were 24 and 15 per cent and twelve months ago 28 and 11 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 19 per cent of consumers thought in April that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 46 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 21 and 42 per cent one month ago and 20 and 42 per cent one year ago.

Fifteen per cent of employed persons reckoned in April that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 21 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in April that consumer prices would go up by 1.3 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In April, 47 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Households' intentions of buying various hobby and sport equipment had grown from before. Seventeen per cent of households were very or fairly certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In April, 20 per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Altogether, 50 per cent of consumers regarded the time favourable for saving in April. In all, 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 76 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. Households mainly planned on saving for a rainy day or for a holiday trip. Next to various bank accounts, the most common planned investment targets were investment funds.

In April, 69 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Thirteen per cent of households considered raising a loan within one year. Intentions to finance consumption and travel with a loan have grown slightly.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In April, consumers' confidence in the economy was strongest in Greater Helsinki and Eastern Finland. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	04/2015	03/2016	04/2016	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,6	22,9	-6,5	11,4	10,4	9,8	-
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,3	14,1	2,3	10,7	5,0	8,4	=
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,0	25,3	-27,1	5,0	2,9	4,4	=
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	1,2	1,3	1,3
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-4,1	27,6	-51,1	-12,5	-12,2	-15,4	-
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,4	7,6	-18,8	-2,8	-6,9	-2,7	=
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	18,6	21,0	19,9	=
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,5	36,8	-19,6	-0,1	1,7	0,6	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,1	42,0	-47,1	26,1	24,0	28,2	+
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,3	52,2	10,9	42,2	46,1	41,9	=

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2016, April. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tara Junes 029 551 3322, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.4.2016)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.4.2016)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.4.2016)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (27.4.2016)

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Updated 27.4.2016