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Published: 27 October 2016

Consumer confidence remains on a good level

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 15.8 in October, having been 14.4 in September and 15.7 in August. In last year’s October the CCI received the value 1.3. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.7. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,252 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 3 and 19 October.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the CCI, expectations on own and Finland’s economy and own saving possibilities improved slightly in October from September. The assessment about the development of unemployment remained more or less unchanged. Compared with the corresponding period last year, all the components improved clearly in October.

In October, consumers’ expectations concerning Finland’s economy were bright. Expectations on the consumer’s own economy and general unemployment were at long-term average levels. Consumers considered their own saving possibilities good over the next 12 months.

In October, consumers regarded the time favourable for buying durable goods and especially for taking out a loan but not so much for saving. In October, employed consumers felt personally somewhat threatened by unemployment.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In October, 41 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 17 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 39 and 19 per cent in September and pessimistic 27 and 37 per cent one year ago.

In October, 26 per cent of consumers believed that their own economy would improve and 13 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago the respective proportions were 22 and 18 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 30 per cent of consumers thought in October that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 32 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 28 and 30 per cent in September and gloomy 12 and 60 per cent one year ago.

Thirteen per cent of employed persons reckoned in October that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 18 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-three per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in October that consumer prices would go up by 1.5 per cent over the next 12 months. One year previously, the predicted inflation rate was 1.2 per cent. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In October, 47 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. General intentions to spend money were still moderate. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In October, 18 per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

In all, 57 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in October. In all, 68 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. In the long term, an average of 60 and 74 per cent of households have been saving or think they will be able to save. In October, households mainly planned on saving for a rainy day or for a holiday trip. Next to various bank accounts, the most planned investment targets were investment funds.

In October, 73 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Slightly more households than usual, that is, 14 per cent considered taking out a loan with a year – mainly for a dwelling in a housing company or consumption.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In October, consumers' confidence in the economy was strongest in Greater Helsinki and Northern Finland. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	10/2015	09/2016	10/2016	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11.7	22.9	-6.5	1.3	14.4	15.8	+
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8.3	14.1	2.3	2.5	7.1	8.0	=
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3.2	25.3	-27.1	-8.7	9.2	11.4	+
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2.2	4.6	0.6	1.2	1.3	1.5
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-4.1	27.6	-51.1	-27.7	-1.7	-2.0	=
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1.5	7.6	-18.8	-5.7	-3.1	-3.2	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18.3	41.8	-14.2	15.6	21.4	22.4	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10.4	36.8	-19.6	2.5	3.7	8.3	=
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17.4	42.0	-47.1	14.4	29.5	31.3	+
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39.4	52.2	10.9	39.1	42.9	45.6	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2016, October. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.10.2016)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.10.2016)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.10.2016)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.10.2016)

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Updated 27.10.2016