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Published: 27 July 2017

Consumer confidence continued as strong in July

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 22.8 in July, having been 23.9 in June and 24.1 in May. The figures for May to June were the highest in the measuring history 1995 to 2017. Last year in July, the consumer confidence indicator received the value 13.1. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 12.0. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,158 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 3 and 18 July.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the components of the confidence indicator, expectations concerning consumers' own economy improved in July from June. By contrast, views concerning own saving possibilities and Finland’s economy weakened slightly. The expectation concerning general unemployment remained unchanged. Compared with the corresponding period last year, all the components strengthened in July.

In July, consumers’ expectations concerning Finland's economy and unemployment were very optimistic. The confidence in decreasing unemployment has been highest in ten years during summer. Views concerning one's own economy and possibilities to save were also bright in July.

In July, consumers regarded the time very favourable for taking out a loan and also a little for saving and buying durable goods. Employed consumers felt in July that their personal threat of unemployment has decreased somewhat in recent months.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In July, 47 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while only eight per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In June, the respective proportions were 50 and nine per cent and in July one year ago 38 and 19 per cent.

In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve and only nine per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One month earlier, the corresponding proportions were 26 and 13 per cent, and one year earlier 24 and 14 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 47 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 15 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months previously, the corresponding proportions were gloomy 25 and 34 per cent.

Seventeen per cent of employed persons reckoned in July that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 15 per cent thought it had grown. Thirty-two per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in July that consumer prices would go up by 1.7 per cent over the next 12 months. One year earlier the predicted inflation rate was 1.4 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In July, 44 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. General intentions to spend money were moderate in July. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car during the next 12 months. A considerable number, or nine per cent, of households considered purchasing a dwelling. In July, 17 per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Saving was considered worthwhile by 62 per cent of consumers in July. In all, 66 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 77 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. In July, households mainly planned on saving for a rainy day or for a holiday trip. Next to various bank accounts, the most planned investment targets were investment funds.

In July, 74 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. The long-term average proportion is 62 per cent. Thirteen per cent of households considered raising a loan within one year.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In July, consumers' confidence in the economy was strongest in Greater Helsinki and weakest in Eastern Finland. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were clearly most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	07/2016	06/2017	07/2017	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12.0	24.1	-6.5	13.1	23.9	22.8	++
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8.3	14.1	2.3	6.3	8.3	10.5	+
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3.7	25.3	-27.1	8.3	22.0	20.1	++
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2.2	4.6	0.6	1.4	1.8	1.7
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3.6	27.6	-51.1	-5.8	15.9	15.9	++
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1.2	7.6	-18.8	-3.4	6.3	2.9	+
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18.4	41.8	-14.2	24.5	23.7	23.2	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10.4	36.8	-19.6	6.1	15.6	16.3	+
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17.8	42.0	-47.1	28.1	32.3	34.4	++
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39.7	52.2	10.9	43.6	49.3	44.5	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results .

Source: Consumer Survey 2017, July. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.7.2017)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.7.2017)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.7.2017)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.7.2017)

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Updated 27.7.2017