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Published: 14 August 2008

Output of the national economy in June down from the month before

Seasonally adjusted output fell by 1.5 per cent in June from the month before. According to the original series, output remained on level with the year before. Adjusted for working days, output was just short of one per cent higher than in June 2007. The data derive from Statistics Finland's Trend Indicator of Output.

Volume of total output 2003 - 2008, trend and seasonally adjusted series

The series of the Trend Indicator of Output are seasonally adjusted with the Tramo/Seats method. The latest observations of the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation (seasonally adjusted and trend series) become revised with new observations in seasonal adjustment methods.

Percentage changes of total output from previous year's corresponding month

Examined according to the original series, secondary production is estimated to have gone up by a good three per cent from June of the previous year. Services are estimated to have contracted by just short of two per cent and primary production by nine per cent from June 2007. Secondary production includes manufacturing and construction. Services comprise trade, hotel and restaurant industries, transport and business activities as well as real estate, renting and research services, financial intermediation and insurance, and public services. Primary production refers to agriculture, forestry and fishery.

The former Monthly Indicator of Total Output is being revised

Starting from the February 2008 release, these statistics are published as the Trend Indicator of Output. The calculation of the indicator has been harmonised with the calculation methods of quarterly accounts output, and the development work will continue in 2008. The calculation of industry-specific data is now primarily based on value data deflated with previous year's average prices. This produces volume figures at previous year's prices, in which the previous year is always the base year. Volume changes at previous year's prices are used to chain a continuous volume series at reference year 2000 prices with the so-called annual overlap method. This series is published as the Trend Indicator of Output. This method corresponds to the deflation and chaining method applied to quarterly accounts output. In this publication the calculation of value data is based on 58 sources and the description of price development on 59 sources. The time series have been completely revised from 1996 onwards in accordance with the new sources and methods.

The volume of the source data used in the calculation of the Trend Indicator of Output has been increased significantly and the calculation is performed at a more detailed level than before (2-digit level of the Standard Industrial Classification). The publication level is primary production, secondary production and services. In the published indicator already a considerable proportion of the source data used in the calculation has been changed to comply with the revised quarterly accounts. As a rule, the source data used for manufacturing and private services are preliminary data from indices of turnover. As regards the other industries, development work still continues.

Source: Trend Indicator of Output 2008, June. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Veli-Pekka Karvinen +358 9 1734 2667, Mr Samu Hakala +358 9 1734 3756, kansantalous.suhdanteet@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö

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Last updated 14.8.2008