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Published: 31 May 2007

Population projection 2007 - 2040

According to a fresh population projection released by Statistics Finland, on the assumption that the present development continues, the population of Finland will keep on growing fairly strongly right up to 2030. The projection indicates that the size of the population resident in the country would then be 5.68 million. The projection is based on observations on past development in fertility, mortality and migration and does not seek to estimate the effect of economic, socio-political regional policy or other such factors on future population development.

According to the projection, the annual number of deaths will exceed births by 2030, but net immigration is forecast to sustain population growth even after this. The volume of net immigration is assumed to be 10,000 persons.

By 2030, the proportion of persons aged over 65 in the population is estimated to rise from the present 16 per cent to 26 per cent and then remain almost unchanged for the next decade. Respectively, the share of persons aged under 15 will diminish from the present 17 per cent to 15.5. per cent by 2040. By the same year, the proportion of people of working age in the population will contract from the present 66.5 per cent to 57.5 per cent. The number of persons of working age will start to fall in 2010 when the large, post-war baby boom generations will reach retirement age. By 2034, the demographic dependency ratio, that is number of children and elderly people per one hundred persons of working age, will go up from the present 50 to 74.6.

The share of persons aged over 85 in the population is forecast to rise from the 1.8 per cent it was at the last turn of the year to 6.1 per by 2040. Thus, their number will go up from today's 94,000 to 349,000.

Demographic dependency ratio 1940 - 2040

Assuming that the trend of the past four years continues in internal migration, population in the Region of Kainuu will contract by eight per cent from its present size by 2020. According to the projection, the next largest contractions in populations will take place in the Regions of Etelä-Savo, down by five per cent, and Lapland and North Karelia, both down by three per cent. The largest relative increases in population will take place in the Regions of Åland, Pirkanmaa, Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa. The sizes of their populations are estimated to grow by approximately 10 per cent from the present by 2020.

According to the projection, the largest growth in population among all Finnish municipalities will take place in the municipality of Espoo where it will grow by 40,000 by 2020. The next largest increases in population will take place in Vantaa (25,000), Helsinki (20,000), Tampere (16,000) and Oulu (15,000).

A publication from the 2007 - 2040 Population projection will come out in October/November 2007. In future, Statistics Finland will be producing population projections at two-year intervals and the next projection will be released in the autumn of 2009.

Statistics Finland's population projections are based on observations on past development in fertility, mortality and migration. The projections do not seek to estimate the effect of economic, socio-political regional policy and other such factors on population development. The calculations mainly indicate the outcome from the present development under the assumption that it continues unchanged. Thus, they should not be interpreted as descriptions of the inevitable. The task of a population projection is to provide tools with which decision-makers can assess whether measures need to be taken to influence the development. This population projection was implemented in co-operation with the Ministry of Finance and its release was brought forward due to the information needs created by the project to restructure municipalities and services. Data by municipality from the 2007 population projection are, therefore, made available free of charge on Statistics Finland's website for anyone needing them.

Source: Population and Cause of Death Statistics. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Markus Rapo +358 9 1734 3238, vaesto.tilasto@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Jari Tarkoma

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• Background to the population projection and limitations on its use (31.5.2007)

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Last updated 31.5.2007