Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2008 > February > Consumers' confidence gone in general economy, but not in their own

Published: 27 February 2008

Consumers' confidence gone in general economy, but not in their own

Consumer confidence in the economy weakened further in February. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 10.1 in February, having been 13.1 in January and 16.8 twelve months ago. Confidence in the economy was also weaker than the long-term average in February. The consumer confidence indicator last received a lower value than this in April 2006, when it stood at 9.4. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,480 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 February.

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning Finland's economy and the development of unemployment grew gloomier from the previous month in February. Consumers' views concerning their own economy and saving possibilities remained more or less unchanged and bright. Moreover, they considered saving especially worthwhile in February. Consumers continued to predict that inflation would stay high.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in February 2008, balances*

	Average 10/95-	Max. 10/95-	Min. 10/95-	February 2007	January 2008	February 2008	Situation***
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)	13.9	21.8	3.5	16.8	13.1	10.1	- -
CCI components:
Own economic situation in 12 months' time	9.5	14.1	2.3	14.1	9.7	9.6	+
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months	34.9	52.0	10.9	50.9	48.4	49.2	++
Finland's economic situation in 12 months time	5.7	21.7	-14.0	1.4	-8.2	-11.4	- -
Finland's unemployment situation in 12 months time	5.5	27.6	-22.7	0.7	2.6	-6.8	-
Others:
Inflation in 12 months' time, per cent	2.1	3.8	0.7	2.4	3.8	3.7
Own threat of unemployment at present**	4.3	7.6	0.8	4.7	7.6	5.2	+
Financial situation of household at present	26.1	35.1	14.7	35.1	34.3	33.7	++
Favourable time to make major purchases at present	20.9	37.7	-2.1	26.5	32.6	25.3	+
Favourable time to save at present	9.6	36.8	-19.6	32.4	32.6	33.0	++
Favourable time to raise a loan at present	21.0	42.0	-13.5	15.4	-3.0	-0.1	- -
* The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. A positive balance figure denotes an optimistic and a negative balance figure a pessimistic view on the economy. ** Own threat of unemployment has only been asked since March 2004. *** ++ Situation is very good, + Situation is good, - Situation is bad, - - Situation is very bad.

In February, 15 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 36 per cent of them thought that the country's economy would deteriorate. In January, the respective proportions were 18 and 33 per cent and twelve months ago 24 and 20 per cent. In all, 29 per cent of consumers believed in February that their own economy would improve while 13 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago the corresponding proportions were 33 and 9 per cent.

Altogether 29 per cent of consumers thought in February that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 39 per cent of them believed it would increase. In January, the respective proportions were 35 and 29 per cent and twelve months ago 35 and 31 per cent. Thirteen per cent of employed persons reckoned in February that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 10 per cent thought it had grown. In January these proportions were 17 and 9 per cent.

Consumers predicted in February that consumer prices would go up by 3.7 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

Saving was considered worthwhile by 78 per cent of consumers in February. Sixty-six per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 80 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. In February, 48 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve months ago, the respective proportion was 63 per cent. Slightly fewer households than before, or 11 per cent of them, were planning to raise a loan within one year.

In February, 47 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. In January this proportion was 53 per cent. Many households intended to spend money on, for instance, travel or domestic appliances during the next six months. In the next twelve months, more households than before, or 21 per cent of them, were fairly or very certain to buy a car and 8 per cent a dwelling.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) 10/1995-2/2008

Consumers' micro and macro indicators 10/1995-2/2008*

* Micro indicator is the average of three balances: own economy and household's saving possibilities in 12 months' time, and household's financial situation at present.
Macro indicator is the average of two balance figures: Finland's economy and unemployment in 12 months' time.

Deviation of CCI from country average in EU member states, January 2008

*Calculated from seasonally adjusted series; average: 10/1995-
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results, January 2008
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2008, February. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734 3598, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö

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Last updated 27.2.2008