Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2016 > July > Consumers’ confidence in the economy weakened slightly in July

Published: 27 July 2016

Consumers’ confidence in the economy weakened slightly in July

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 13.1 in July, having been 14.9 in June and 12.5 in May. Last year in July, the consumer confidence indicator received the value 6.9. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 11.6. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,178 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 18 July.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Consumers’ expectations of Finland’s economic situation weakened in July compared to June. Views on one’s own saving possibilities and one’s own economy also weakened slightly. In contrast, expectations concerning general development of unemployment almost remained unchanged.

In July, consumers’ views on Finland’s economy were moderate but views on their own economy were still cautious. Expectations concerning saving possibilities were good.

In July, consumers regarded the time more favourable for raising a loan and buying durable goods than for saving. In July, the threat of employment felt by employed consumers was slightly higher than average.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In July, 38 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 19 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In June, the respective proportions were 47 and 18 per cent and in July one year ago 33 and 26 per cent.

In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve while 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 25 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 34 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 17 and 47 per cent.

Thirteen per cent of employed persons reckoned in July that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 21 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-five per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in July that consumer prices would go up by 1.4 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In July, 49 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and five per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In July, 20 per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Saving was considered worthwhile by 54 per cent of consumers in July. In all, 64 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 76 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In July, 69 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Thirteen per cent of households considered raising a loan within one year.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In July, consumers' confidence in the economy was strongest in Greater Helsinki. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees and entrepreneurs were clearly most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	07/2015	06/2016	07/2016	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,6	22,9	-6,5	6,9	14,9	13,1	+
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,3	14,1	2,3	5,8	7,4	6,3	-
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,1	25,3	-27,1	2,1	13,8	8,3	+
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	1,6	1,3	1,4
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-4,1	27,6	-51,1	-17,4	-7,1	-5,8	=
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,4	7,6	-18,8	-6,6	-2,0	-3,4	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	17,9	26,0	24,5	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,4	36,8	-19,6	6,5	4,3	6,1	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,2	42,0	-47,1	19,0	27,0	28,1	+
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,3	52,2	10,9	37,4	45,4	43,6	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2016, July. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 029 551 3322, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.7.2016)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.7.2016)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.7.2016)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.7.2016)

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Updated 27.7.2016